Educating the Public for the Nuclear Reality: Understanding Likely Behaviors in the Aftermath of a Nuclear Detonation

Abstract

Introduction:Amid the escalating nuclear arms race in the latter half of the 20th century, civil defense preparedness drills, commonly known as “Duck-and-Cover” drills, were practiced throughout classrooms in the United States. Since then, education and preparedness measures have been largely replaced by fire evacuation and active shooter drills. This study endeavored to understand the likely actions that members of the public may take in the event of a nuclear detonation in the 21st century.Method:Scenarios for 5 kiloton and 100 kiloton near-surface nuclear detonations were modeled using the Hazard Prediction Assessment and Capability (HPAC) software. A video was created animating the models with a voiceover that explained the initial effects of a nuclear detonation. Using the Qualtrics platform, a survey was created in which the order of behavior-based questions and the video was randomized. Lucid distributed the survey to a representative sample of the American public.Results:Among 3,087 participants, only 921 (30%) indicated their confidence in knowing what to do in the event of a nuclear detonation in their city. Participants were most likely to listen to the radio, hide in an interior room, and seal windows or doors. Two thirds indicated they would “duck and cover” (n = 2034, 66%), an action that ranked below helping others (n = 2183, 71%) and wearing a mask (n = 2174, 70%). Study participants who indicated their likely behaviors after watching the video were significantly more likely to listen to the radio (p = 0.044) than those who answered such questions before watching the video.Conclusion:The results of this study suggest there remains a need for emergency preparedness education for members of the public in the United States. As the threat of a nuclear detonation grows, educational methods such as video explanations may increase the preparedness of the American public.