Abstract
In this paper we estimate the living carbon lost from Ecuador’s mangrove forests since the advent of export-focused shrimp aquaculture. We use remote sensing techniques to delineate the extent of mangroves and aquaculture at approximately decadal periods since the arrival of aquaculture in each Ecuadorian estuary. We then spatiotemporally calculate the carbon values of the mangrove forests and estimate the amount of carbon lost due to direct displacement by aquaculture. Additionally, we calculate the new carbon stocks generated due to mangrove reforestation or afforestation. This research introduces time and LUCC (land use / land cover change) into the tropical forest carbon literature and examines forest carbon loss at a higher spatiotemporal resolution than in many earlier analyses. We find that 80 percent, or 7,014,517 t of the living carbon lost in Ecuadorian mangrove forests can be attributed to direct displacement of mangrove forests by shrimp aquaculture. We also find that IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compliant carbon grids within Ecuador’s estuaries overestimate living carbon levels in estuaries where substantial LUCC has occurred. By approaching the mangrove forest carbon loss question from a LUCC perspective, these findings allow for tropical nations and other intervention agents to prioritize and target a limited set of land transitions that likely drive the majority of carbon losses. This singular cause of transition has implications for programs that attempt to offset or limit future forest carbon losses and place value on forest carbon or other forest good and services.
Highlights
Tropical deforestation is the second largest cause of global greenhouse gas emissions behind burning of fossil fuels and is responsible for releasing on average 1.4 Pg C yr-1 between 1980 and 2005 [1,2,3,4]
It has been suggested that these global estimates of tropical forest carbon stocks, and those of emissions, are likely underestimations due to the fact that the current levels of carbon stored in tropical mangroves and other organic-rich peatlands, belowground, remain relatively unknown and unaccounted for in many global analyses [6,7,8,9]
Such snapshot mangrove carbon storage studies are spatial in nature, few spatiotemporal carbon-based analyses of mangroves appear to exist and even fewer focus on specific land use / land cover transitions, such as mangrove to aquaculture conversion, that are likely responsible for the majority of the carbon losses
Summary
Tropical deforestation is the second largest cause of global greenhouse gas emissions behind burning of fossil fuels and is responsible for releasing on average 1.4 Pg C yr-1 between 1980 and 2005 [1,2,3,4]. It has been estimated that global mangrove forests contain between 937 t C ha-1 and 1023 t C ha-1 [7, 10] with higher biomass, and higher carbon densities closer to the equator [11, 12] This calculation of mangrove forest carbon storage per unit area is approximately three to four times higher than that of other tropical forests types that only average between 223 t C ha-1 and 316 t C ha-1 [13]. Such snapshot mangrove carbon storage studies are spatial in nature, few spatiotemporal carbon-based analyses of mangroves appear to exist and even fewer focus on specific land use / land cover transitions, such as mangrove to aquaculture conversion, that are likely responsible for the majority of the carbon losses
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