Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change

Robert W Dunford,Alison C Smith,Diana Hanganu,Paula A Harrison

doi:10.1007/s10980-014-0148-2

Abstract

ContextFuture patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers.ObjectiveMap changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options.MethodsThe CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario.ResultsFuture service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South–North) are also identified in some scenarios.ConclusionsCoordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

Highlights

Climate change impacts on different sectors in Europe have been studied extensively (Kovats et al 2014)
Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down
A review undertaken for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report, by co-authors of this paper, identified 26 studies which reported findings on the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in sub-regions of Europe based on an assessment of the published literature from 2004 to 2013 (Kovats et al 2014)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change impacts on different sectors in Europe have been studied extensively (Kovats et al 2014). Despite the implications of these changes for society and the environment, few studies have analysed how Europe might adapt to potential future climate change impacts on ecosystem services. Adaptation strategies will need to consider trade-offs between ecosystem services in order to assess which bundles of services can be delivered together (Raudsepp-Hearne et al 2010) under varying and uncertain futures. Ignoring such trade-offs or crosssectoral interactions can lead to either over- or underestimation of climate change impacts and the need for adaptation (Holman et al 2014)

Results

Discussion

Conclusion