Ecosystem-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics: Time for a radical shift of perspective?

Abstract

Over the last few years, several researchers working on the development of “biogeochemical” or “ecosystem-scale” models of soil carbon dynamics have reported struggling with a number of difficult challenges. At the same time, work in this area has focused exclusively on microbial activity described at a macro-ecological level, and has entirely bypassed the abundant literature produced in the last two decades on the study of soil processes at the microscale. Juxtaposition of these different observations suggests that a radical shift of perspective is in order. In this general context, the present article carries out an in-depth analysis of several of the key limitations of current ecosystem-scale models and recommends a number of steps to shift the perspective to one that is argued to have a better chance of success in the relatively short time we have to address several pressing soil-related environmental problems. These steps, in particular, require the development of large-spatial-scale models of soil carbon dynamics to be far more interdisciplinary than it has been till now, and to adopt a “bottom-up” approach, building on what the research at the microscale reveals about soil processes. Nevertheless, because it may assist in upscaling efforts, it is argued that some room should be preserved for work to continue on the search for empirical models applicable at large spatial scales.