Abstract
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.
Highlights
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security
We find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) policies help ameliorate climate change impacts on fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea in the near-term, yet benefits are limited after mid-century when climate-driven declines exceed adaptive capacity
Increases in summer bottom temperature indices are projected for the EBS under both representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, but are consistently highest for RCP 8.5
Summary
Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. We use scenario analyses and management strategy evaluation (Fig. 1)[19,20] to assess the future performance of EBFM fisheries policies as implemented in the Eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, for the past two decades[21]. This highly productive system supports the largest fishery in the United States (walleye pollock, Gadus chalcogrammus) with ~1.4 million ton yr−1 and $1.34 billion USD first wholesale value in 2017. Managers reduce annual harvest limits for individual stocks to conform to the 2 MT cap based on multiple management objectives, including maximizing sustainable yield, reducing the risk of exceeding directed and incidental catch limits (which can close a fishery for the season), other ecosystem considerations and impacts, and meeting distributional objectives and mandates[21]
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