Abstract
The magnitude of regional malaria risk is dependent primarily on the dynamics and distribution of the vector species, which are determined mainly by climate conditions. A coupled model with ecophysiological and climatological factors was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the five species of dominant malaria vectors in monsoon Asia. Here, we examined how the potential distribution obtained from the model could explain trends in malaria incidence observed in India, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of malaria in Asia. Most notably, there was a significant positive correlation between annual malaria incidences and the maximum generation number of vectors for each state (p < 0.001). Malaria incidence tended to increase exponentially as vector generation number increased. In addition, the interannual variation in observed regional malaria incidences was synchronized with that of the potential number of vector generations. The observed seasonal peak of malaria incidences corresponded closely to the simulated appearance period of vector species, except for intensively irrigated areas that experience anthropogenic impacts on hydrologic conditions. Simulated vector distributions effectively expressed spatial and temporal prevalence of malaria in India. This novel approach to modeling based on vector ecology is an effective method for assessing malaria risk.
Highlights
India accounts for approximately two-thirds of all confirmed malaria cases in the South and EastAsia regions
On the other hand, considering the effect of climate variables on the growth of malaria mosquito vectors, we have developed a new model coupled with the ecophysiological and climatological distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg), which can describe growth of Anopheles mosquitoes using simple climate factors [16]
Areas having a relatively high value of Gmax included the states of Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand, Kerala, and the northeastern Indian states, which produced more than 10 generations of Anopheles per year
Summary
India accounts for approximately two-thirds of all confirmed malaria cases in the South and EastAsia regions. The API in most of India is less than 2, the API ranges from 2 to 5 in scattered regions, and regions with API values higher than 5 are scattered in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Orissa, and eight states in the northeastern part of India [2,3,4] Malaria cases in these areas account for more than. Instead of the API, monthly parasite index values (MPI, malaria cases per 1,000 population per month) were used to analyze the seasonal prevalence of malaria on the basis of observational studies [5,6,7]. There is a significant positive correlation between MPI and the density of Anopheles stephensi, the dominant mosquito vector of human malaria at the study site [5]
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