Economics of Technological Leapfrogging

Abstract

Abstract Latecomer economies are firms which may be able to leapfrog older vintages of technology, and make pre-emptive investments in emerging technologies to catch up with advanced countries in new markets. Leapfrogging can be defined as latecomers trying something different ahead of the forerunners, thereby leaping over them. The answer to the question whether the fourth industrial revolution represents a new window of opportunity for leapfrogging or whether it constitutes a source of further risks for latecomers is that this depends entirely on the country’s response and readiness, that is, its industrial policy, digital literacy, the skill and education level, as well as domestic market size and position in the GVC. Policy recommendations for leapfrogging can also be made for different types of firms, such as incumbents and start-ups. The former comprises three types of firms, namely leaders, followers, and laggards. Path-creating type leapfrogging is more likely to take place in start-ups because they have invested the least in existing technologies or business models. Leader or follower type firms in emerging economies tend to have some experience with technology and absorptive capacity and are thus likely to be in a position to skip one or several stages, while managing the risks associated with leapfrogging. Lastly, laggard firms should not attempt pre-mature leapfrogging but should first build some absorptive capacity in their niche area and upgrade by moving up the higher end of the GVC.