Economics of Strategic Planning

Abstract

C wisdom in government and the aerospace industry is that it is virtually impossible to do long-range strategic planning in political and advance technology environments. Politics and technological innovation, it is thought, are so unpredictable and volatile that long-range planning is not worth the investment of energy and resources. Any longrange plan will be overtaken by events, making the effort useless. Actually, the opposite is true; it is because of unpredictability and economic uncertainty that strategic planning is necessary. It is the economics of uncertainty and change that make strategic planning, a system that anticipates change and guides the organization's response, an important dimension in organization. Nowhere are volatility and uncertainty greater than in our current national space programs. Both civil and military space programs are ideal candidates for strategic planning. Both are heavily influenced by geopolitical, technological, and economic considerations. Additionally, the time span from initiation to completion in space projects is often measured in tens of years. It is ironic that in today's environment, and in the foreseeable future, the primary considerations are economic: Is the return on investment worth the effort? Part of the answer lies in selecting and deploying the correct mix of programs, resources, and other assets. Strategic planning, while not the total answer, can contribute substantial insight and direction to both the government and the aerospace industry.