Economics of Oil Seed Exports in India: An Application of Holt-Forecasts

Abstract

This article intended to examine the export performance of oil seed crops in India from 1987 to 2019 using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Cuddy-Della Valle instability index, as well as forecast export quantity and value to 2025. The analysis focuses mainly on two major oil seed crops: groundnut and soyabean. The research of oil seed crop export growth trends over time revealed a positive growth rate for both export quantity and export unit value. The potential for Indian oil seed crop in the world market during the post-liberalization period were shown by the strong growth rates of soyabean goods combined with high export instability indices. When compared to soyabean, the annual growth rate of groundnut was the lowest, with instability showing a wide range across the entire period. Holt models were created in this paper to estimate oil seed export quantity and prices, with the top models chosen by comparing Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). Further, groundnut export quantity and price forecasts showed positive development throughout the forecast period, whereas, soyabean export price forecasts showed a 0.01 percent increase from 2021 to 2025. To improve the worldwide performance of the Indian oil seed industry, the government should make appropriate amendments to oil seed export policies and domestic supportive measures, as well as adopt appropriate value adds and market diversification strategies.