Abstract
Fuel-parity, i.e. the intersection of fossil fuel prices with PV generation cost, represents a major milestone for further photovoltaic (PV) diffusion besides grid-parity. A fuel-parity model is presented, which is based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) coupled with the experience curve approach. Preconditions for a successful hybridization of PV and fossil fuel power plants are discussed. The global fossil fuel power plant capacity is analysed for the economic hybridization market potential on a georeferenced localized basis for all fossil fuel power plants. LCOE of fossil fuel power plants are converging with those of PV in sunny regions, but in contrast to PV are mainly driven by fuel cost. As a consequence of cost trends this analysis estimates an enormous worldwide market potential for PV power plants by the end of this decade in the order of at least 900 GWp installed capacity without any electricity grid constraints leading to a fast diffusion of hybrid PV-Fossil power plants. The complementary power feed-in of PV and wind power plants might result in hybrid PV-Wind-Fossil power plants in regions of good solar and wind resources. In the mid- to long-term the remaining fossil fuels might be substituted by renewable power methane by using the existing downstream natural gas infrastructure. In conclusion, PV is on the pathway to become a highly competitive energy technology.
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