Abstract
We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks on 2.8 million ha of Crown land in New Brunswick, Canada and compared an early intervention strategy (EIS) with foliage protection approaches. We coupled the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of EIS and foliage protection on 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of susceptible Crown (publicly owned) forest, under moderate and severe SBW outbreak scenarios. Cumulative available harvest supply from 2017 to 2067 was projected to be reduced by 29 to 43 million m3, depending upon SBW outbreak severity, and a successful EIS approach would prevent this loss. These harvest reductions were projected to reduce total economic output by $25 billion (CAD) to $35 billion. Scenarios using biological insecticide foliage protection over 20% of susceptible Crown forest area were projected to reduce losses to 6–17 million m3 and $0.5–4.1 billion. Depending upon SBW outbreak severity, EIS was projected to have benefit/cost ratios of 3.8 to 6.4 and net present values of $186 million to $353 million, both higher than foliage protection strategies. Sensitivity analysis scenarios of ‘what if’ EIS partially works (80% or 90%) showed that these produced superior timber harvest savings than the best foliage protection scenario under severe SBW outbreak conditions and generally superior results under moderate outbreak scenarios. Overall, results support the continued use of EIS as the preferred strategy on economic grounds to protect against SBW outbreaks on Crown land in New Brunswick.
Highlights
The forest sector is one of the most significant components of the Canadian economy, and contributed 8% to 10% of the manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) from 2010 to 2015 [1].Approximately $38 billion CAD of annual total economic output was generated by the forest sector in 2014, accounting for almost 6% of all Canadian exports, worth $30.7 billion CAD [1]
Chang et al [3] used a relatively simple Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and we developed a more detailed CGE model to evaluate effects of SBW outbreak, foliage protection, and early intervention strategy (EIS), on the regional economy in New Brunswick (NB)
Since stumpage revenue values were calculated based on the timber volume harvest results, percentage reductions in stumpage revenue values were similar to reductions in available harvest supply
Summary
The forest sector is one of the most significant components of the Canadian economy, and contributed 8% to 10% of the manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) from 2010 to 2015 [1]. $38 billion CAD of annual total economic output was generated by the forest sector in 2014, accounting for almost 6% of all Canadian exports, worth $30.7 billion CAD [1]. Economic value of the forest sector is vulnerable to natural disturbances that reduce timber supply and cause large-scale economic losses. Pest outbreaks and forest fires are the dominant natural disturbances that affect the forest sector in Canada [2,3,4,5]. In eastern Canada, spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (SBW) outbreaks have impacted millions of hectares of spruce-fir forests every. 30–40 years, and the outbreaks that generally last about 10–15 years have destroyed hundreds of millions of cubic meters of timber [6,7,8].
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