Economics of diabetes mellitus type 2 control based on big data modeling

Abstract

Background. It has been done previously that the main expenditures in diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2T) not related with glycemia correction, but they are spending on the cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) of DM2T and indirect costs of CVDs in work-aged patients.Objective. Modelling of potential clinical and economic results of effective programs for DM2T control realizations and their influence on CVDs and mortality in case of HbA1c targets reached.Materials and methods. The Oxford UKPDS model has been used for epidemiologic and economic benefits in cases of decreased CVDs and premature deaths due to more effective control of DM2T. We created 48 cluster groups of patients based on age (less 40 y. o., 40–60 y. o., 60+ y. o.) and HbA1c levels and CVDs anamnesis. The probability of CVDs over 10 years was calculated for each cluster. Subsequently, DALY, YLL, and YLD have also been defined. Average salary, GDP per capita, etc. were used for the analysis.Results. Successful control of DM2T can lead to saving 1.69 billion YLL, or 115.93 years per 100th of people annually. The prognosis for CVD morbidity and mortality decreasing due to more effective DM2T control can decrease DALY loss by 17 %. The effect on the Russian economy in this case can be evaluated as 197,8 billion RUR over 10 years (based on salary level). The benefit in the GDP per capita metric is higher — 213.6 billion RUR annually.Conclusion. Effective methods of DM2T control can reduce the risk of CVD occurrence and progression; therefore, they are economically justified and can be considered as an additional source of budgetary benefits, leading to lower medical care costs.