Abstract
The article covers the problem of development of management methods of social and environmental risks of urbanized territories development. The main purpose of research is a development and scientific substantiation of economic-mathematical model, allowing to increase the efficiency of risk management of urban development and selection for the practical implementation of the most efficient investment and town-planning projects. During the investigation the conditions and possible consequences of socio-environmental violations of natural and antropogenic environment in urban areas were examined, the characteristics of the information base of the assessment and objects of socio-ecological and economic risks of urban development were identified, the peculiarities of the negative occurrences of the deterioration of environmental quality were distinguished. As a base for the source data array composition, the authors propose to use the common system of integral parameters of sustainable development and environmental indicators. As basic function of socio-ecological damage is proposed to use the direct dependency of the health level of the population from the most significant parameters of the environment, expressed in the econometric equation. For formal description of the dependency of economic-mathematical models, the whole complex of factors affecting the value of socio-ecological damage were studied, the drawbacks of simple regression models for description of interaction between the mentioned factors were examined, the assumption about the need to include in a formal description the factors of socio-economic risks of the interrelated equations system was made. The main result of the study is developed economic-mathematical model describing the process of formation of socio-environmental risk during implementation of investment and construction projects of urbanized territories development. The main conclusion of the study is the justification for the need to identify environmental and social risks and due to their presence the economic damage in the process of developing programmes and projects of urban territories development. The use of the proposed model assists with pictorial rendition of the correlation between environmental problems and development of city economy, as well as more objective substantiation of efficiency of investments in the urban environment development.
Highlights
The main result of the study is developed economic-mathematical model describing the process of formation of socio-environmental risk during implementation of investment and construction projects of urbanized territories development
Most known systems of ecological indicators of the environment is a system of criteria for sustainable development, elaborated by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (UN CSD) and the system of environmental indicators proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (Bossel, 1999)
To estimate the potential socio-economic damage from pollution of the environment during the implementation of investment and construction projects of city urbanized territories development, we suggest a model based on the ideas of Freeman (Freeman, 1979), which presumes that:
Summary
Modern urbanized environment of urban areas in Russia is characterized by a severe socio-ecological violations (Murzin, 2012), due to the lack of control of ecological parameters of investment and construction projects (Borisov & Marshalkovich, 2012) and as a result large-scale pollutions of atmospheric air, surface & deep soil and water objects (Qian et al, 2013).The deterioration of ecological environment parameters, intensification of construction and anthropogenic impact on the environment contribute to a violation of the natural-anthropogenic sustainability (Murzin, 2013) and increase the probability of negative socio-economic consequences in the scale of urban agglomeration (Taroun, 2014), exhibited in the increasing incidence, growth of economic losses and on-budget expenditures (Murzin, 2012).At the same time, many researchers use the official publications of the environment pollution as an information basis of data, which, as a rule, do not consider unauthorized discharges and emissions, which leads to poorly objective character of the obtained results and reduces the practical significance of the conclusions (Borisov and Marshalkovich, 2012). Modern urbanized environment of urban areas in Russia is characterized by a severe socio-ecological violations (Murzin, 2012), due to the lack of control of ecological parameters of investment and construction projects (Borisov & Marshalkovich, 2012) and as a result large-scale pollutions of atmospheric air, surface & deep soil and water objects (Qian et al, 2013). The objects of ecological and economic risks of the realized investment and construction projects of urbanized territories development are individuals, urban population, economic entities (enterprises, organizations, companies), territorial and environmental systems and territorial-production complexes of different levels (Murzin , 2013). The process of deterioration in environmental quality can be as relatively evolutionary in nature, for example, prolonged accumulation of the pollutants in the specific field of the environment, and can have catastrophic rate, for example, in consequence of technogenic accidents, catastrophes or natural disasters (Wang et al, 2009)
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