Economic-mathematical model for complex risk assessment of the enterprise investment project using fuzzy logic

Inna Chaikovska,Maksym Chaikovskyi,Pavlo Hryhoruk

doi:10.1051/shsconf/202110712002

Inna Chaikovska, Maksym Chaikovskyi + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202110712002

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Abstract

The article proposes an economic-mathematical model for determining a comprehensive risk assessment of the investment project of the enterprise which are based on the approaches of A. Nedosekin. The model is built using fuzzy logic and takes into account the probability of occurrence of each of the identified risks and the level of impact of each of them on the project. The probability of risk is set by experts in the form of points and converted into linguistic terms, and the level of influence of each of them on the project – the ratio of benefits and is determined using Fishburne scales. The proposed Project Risk Model consists of the following stages: formation of initial data using expert opinions; construction of a hierarchical project risk tree; determination of weight coefficients (Fishburne weights) of project risks; selection and description of membership function and linguistic variables; conversion of input data provided by experts from a score scale into linguistic terms; recognition of qualitative input data on a linguistic scale; determination of a complex indicator of investment project risks; interpretation of a complex indicator. The developed model allows managing the risks of the project to maximize the probability of its successful implementation, to compare alternative projects and choose less risky, to minimize the level of unforeseen costs of the project.

Highlights

Introduction1.1 Problem descriptionThe following subsystems are distinguished in the project management system: time management [1], labor resources, cost, information and communications, quality, project risks, etc
1.1 Problem descriptionThe following subsystems are distinguished in the project management system: time management [1], labor resources, cost, information and communications, quality, project risks, etc
According to the common in foreign countries approach Construction Risk Management System (CRMS), proposed by American analysts, the process of risk identification consists of six stages: detection of uncertain

Summary

Introduction

1.1 Problem descriptionThe following subsystems are distinguished in the project management system: time management [1], labor resources, cost, information and communications, quality, project risks, etc. Project risk management is one of the most important subsystems of project management because it allows at the planning stage of the project to identify problematic issues for its successful implementation. The comprehensive risk assessment of the project allows you to take into account the most significant risks for the project and quantify them to make an effectivelyinformed management decision. Quite often when assessing the risks of enterprise projects, the information is non-numerical, it is necessary to take into account both quantitative and qualitative information in one system and the formation of a single quantitative comprehensive indicator. According to the common in foreign countries approach Construction Risk Management System (CRMS), proposed by American analysts, the process of risk identification consists of six stages: detection of uncertain-

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