Economic voting in Finland before and after an economic crisis

Abstract

This study examines the importance of retrospective economic voting in Finland. More specifically, it investigates if the magnitude of the economic vote was greater after the global financial crisis that unfolded in 2008–2009, as well as if perceptions of the economy had an independent influence on vote choice even when controlling for long-term social cleavages and political predispositions. Using post-election survey data from the 2007 and 2011 parliamentary elections, the first empirical models suggest that the incentives to punish government parties were stronger in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The impact of economic evaluations on vote choice, however, did not remain significant when controlling for long-term anchoring forces related to social background and political predispositions.