Abstract
Meteorological information at an arrival airport is one of the primary variables used to determine refueling of discretionary fuel. This study evaluated the economic value of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF), which has not been previously quantitatively analyzed in Korea. The analysis data included 374,716 international flights that arrived at Incheon airport during 2017–2019. A cost–loss model was used for the analysis, which is a methodology to evaluate forecast value by considering the cost and loss that users can expect, considering the decision-making result based on forecast utilization. The value was divided in terms of improving fuel efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions. The results of the analysis indicate that the annual average TAF value for Incheon Airport was approximately 2.2 M–20.1 M USD under two hypothetical rules of refueling of discretionary fuel. This value is up to 26.2% higher than the total budget of 16.3 M USD set for the production of aviation meteorological forecasts by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Further, it is up to 10 times greater than the 2 M USD spent on aviation meteorological information fees collected by the KMA in 2018.
Highlights
This study aims to enhance the perception toward aviation meteorological information by evaluating the economic benefits of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) used for aircraft operations
The TAF value used by national airlines arriving at Incheon Airport was calculated as approximately 6.2 M USD (5-min rule) and 55 M USD (5% rule), respectively, for 2017, 2018, and 2019
The case of Incheon Airport alone confirms that the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has provided airlines a value exceeding 13% of their annual budgets for TAF production in the 5% rule case, which is considered to provide an average of 148 USD per flight and 0.8 USD per passenger (67,497,168 passengers over three years)
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Weather has a significant effect on aircraft operations management [1]. A flight manager strongly considers the weather condition of the destination airport when loading aviation fuel prior to the aircraft’s departure [2]. To reduce fuel costs, accounting for more than 25% of the airline’s operating costs [3], meteorological information, which strongly affects the fuel payload, is vital for optimizing airlines’ operations and flight route and planning decisions. Despite the importance of the information, some factors, such as users’ perceptions of meteorological information as public goods and lack of standards for appropriate prices, make it difficult to increase or adjust the charge
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