Economic Uncertainty, Aggregate Debt, and the Real Effects of Corporate Finance

Abstract

To explore the real effects of corporate leverage on aggregate risk and welfare, I develop a tractable general equilibrium model with endogenous capital structure driven by time-varying economic uncertainty. Fitting the model leads to interesting insights as to the shortcomings of the standard paradigm. Contrary to the trade-off version, the empirical relation between uncertainty and aggregate leverage is positive. This association is not attributable to supply-side constraints or adjustment costs. An alternative formulation in which debt incentives rise with uncertainty can account for the observed dynamics of uncertainty, credit spreads and leverage. This version, unlike the trade-off model, implies that the real effects of debt on the equilibrium can become severely negative.