Abstract
The economic system is a complex adaptive system (CAS), which is composed of many heterogeneous, dispersed and interconnected actors. Because of ignoring these features, traditional macroeconomic models have many defects. In view of the fact that economic security problems are characterized by multiple and miscellaneous source data, wide range of involvement and complex behavior, an economic system needs to be simulated. In this paper, based on big data technology, we conduct china’s economic security simulation from three aspects: economic security simulation method, economic security simulation modeling and calibration technology, and economic security early warning simulation visualization technology. In the end, we apply the method of this paper to a case study of a rare earth new material company, and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of various safety investment schemes based on the simulation results. Case analysis proves that the method proposed in this paper can simulate economic dynamics to achieve dynamic assessment of economic development and economic security prediction.
Highlights
Complex Adaptive System (CAS) refers to the ability of individuals in the system to communicate with other individuals in the environment
The traditional macroeconomic model has many defects because it ignores these actors. It cannot analyze the behaviors and interactions of heterogeneous individuals [3]; Secondly, it cannot take into account the limited rationality of behavioral individuals with incomplete information [4]; Third, they cannot predict or avoid economic crises; macroeconomics is different from natural sciences
In view of the common characteristics of these problems, we study key technologies such as networked simulation support technology based on cloud computing concept, high-performance data processing and analysis method based on big data, and parallel system construction in the economic field, so as to realize simulation capability of economic dynamics, dynamic evaluation of economic development and economic security prediction
Summary
Complex Adaptive System (CAS) refers to the ability of individuals in the system to communicate with other individuals in the environment. The traditional macroeconomic model has many defects because it ignores these actors It cannot analyze the behaviors and interactions of heterogeneous individuals [3]; Secondly, it cannot take into account the limited rationality of behavioral individuals with incomplete information [4]; Third, they cannot predict or avoid economic crises; macroeconomics is different from natural sciences. Because the traditional model ignores the expected role of limited information, it cannot reflect China’s macroeconomic phenomenon in detail. Our research on complex problems has gradually got rid of the limitation of computability in modeling, and paid more attention to the exploration of the internal mechanism of the economy, so as to gain insight into the everchanging macro-economic phenomena through clear microeconomic basis. The main research contents of the economic security simulation direction include the following three aspects: economic security simulation methods, economic security simulation modeling and verification technology research, and economic security early warning simulation visualization technology research
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