Economic system forecasting based on temporal fusion transformers: Multi-dimensional evaluation and cross-model comparative analysis

Abstract

Although helpful in reducing the uncertainty associated with economic activities, economic forecasting often suffers from low accuracy. Recognizing the high compatibility between deep learning and the nonlinear characteristics of socioeconomic systems, in this paper, we introduce state-of-the-art temporal fusion transformers (TFTs) into the field of economic system forecasting and predict the performance of the Chinese macroeconomic system. Based on an extended analysis of gross final product (GFP) and the intertemporal dynamic relationship between demand-side indicators and output indicators, we establish a scientific economic forecasting framework. To summarize the forecasting characteristics of the TFT algorithm, we compare its one-step and three-step modeling effects in forecasting output indicators with a series of representative benchmark models. According to our proposed four-dimensional evaluation system, the forecasts for China’s macroeconomic system provided by the TFT model have obvious advantages in terms of overall stability, forecasting efficiency, reduction of numerical and timing errors, direction accuracy, and turning point accuracy. The forecast results show that China’s economy faces a risk of slowing growth in the post-pandemic period.