ECONOMIC STUDY OF EDIBLE OILS AND FUTURE PREDICTION OF DEMAND IN EGYPT

Abstract

The plant production sector is amajor pillar of agricultural production,with a value of about 164.15 billion pounds, representing about 57.35% of thevalue of agricultural production amounting to about 287.51 billion pounds. thevalue of oil crops is about 2.28 billion pounds, representing about 79% of thevalue of agricultural production, representing about 1.38% of the value ofplant production.In spite of the multiplicity of oil crops that can be cultivated, the areaof these crops does not exceed 2% of the crop area. the problem of the study isthe growing gap between the production and consumption of edible oils inEgypt, due to the increase in the population rate higher than the rate ofincrease in production of edibl oils.Where the average domestic production of edible oils amounted to181.1 thousand tons while the local consumption amounted to 1020.4thousand tons, which means a gap of about 839,2 thousand tons as an averagefor the period (2001-2015), the study aims to identify on the current status ofproduction and consumption of edible oils in Egypt, and forecast consumptionof edible oils .The study relied on secondary data, it is also relied on the prediction ofthe future consumption of edible oils by using the current consumption rates ofoils, and by knowing the population growth rates and the rates of growth of thenational income.The results of the study indicate that the elasticity of the incomedemand for edible oils is estimated at 0.444. This means that edible oils isessential commodity, also shows that by increasing the national income by1%, the quantities consumed of oils increasing by 0.444% .Future consumption of edible oils was predicted in the future (2019,2021, 2023 and 2025) which is 2224, 2494, 2797 and 3137 thousand tonsrespectively. it is clear that there is an expected continuous increase in thefuture consumption of edible oils, so decision-makers should take this intoconsideration when putting productivity policies to cope with the expectedincrease in consumption.