Economic sanctions and the success of foreign policy goals: A critical evaluation

Abstract

Focusing on case studies of export, import, and capital controls imposed in the twentieth century, Hufbauer and Schott (1985) conclude that economic sanctions do not contribute very much to the achievement of foreign policy goals, except in several situations involving small target countries and modest policy goals. I find that their conclusions are sensitive to and unduly biased by the methodology adopted. Using a Probit model and after correcting for some inherent problems in the original ordinary least squares model, I find evidence that import controls have some leverage, and reject the hypothesis that the sanctions and their consequences jointly have no impact on foreign policy goals. I conclude that further empirical work is required before pronouncements on the effectiveness of economic sanctions can be made.