Economic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Composite Indicators

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to measure and analyse the resilience of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) economies between 2006 and 2015. Our methodology is that of the B2A algorithm and the graph theory. This study highlights two main results: firstly, results from 22 SSA countries show that very few show characteristics of a stable resilience, while most of these countries are still in a condition of uncontrolled vulnerability (or very fragile). Secondly, the South African economies show the highest resilience, though unstable, Central Africa and East Africa economies show a situation of controlled vulnerability, while the West African economies are the most fragile, though heterogeneous. Looking at country specificities, Cameroon, South Africa and Botswana are the only three countries in the sub-region to have maintained a stable situation of resilience. The policy implications of this study engage the SSA countries on the need to further enhance their macroeconomic policies especially policies that improve the contingent dimensions of resilience. These include improvement in political governance, fiscal sustainability and external balances. Policies which are growth driven are encouraged; this will lead to job creation, human development and, as a result, reduction in the social vulnerability. Moreover, natural resource exports revenues should be invested into other economic sectors to support long-term diversification and consequently resilience.