Economic Recovery and Accelerated COVID-19 Spread in Florida

Abstract

Objectives: To determine whether rebounds in Florida business revenues following initial COVID-19 quarantines were associated with increasing infection rates, and whether those associations were more strongly related to certain industries. Methods: Florida business gross revenues and tax collections for April 2020 through March 2021 were accumulated by industry and month. Measured relative to the same month in the prior year, economic rebounds are correlated with statewide monthly COVID-19 infections to measure the strength of relationship.Results: Florida's overall tax collections dropped $2.8 billion below prior year levels during the April 2020 to March 2021 COVID-19 pandemic era; over two-thirds from declining revenues for hotels, theme parks, restaurants, and bars. Although tourism has been rebounding slowly, restaurant and bar business has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with infection rates matching pace.Conclusions: Florida loosened restaurant and bar restrictions faster than most states, only to see rebounding revenues parallel rising infection rates. The states' heavy financial dependence on this industry challenges the objectivity of choices between economic recovery and population health.