Economic Profiling of the Lone Wolf Terrorist: Can Economics Provide Behavioural Investigative Advice?

Abstract

Economics has long had a theory of ‘crime and punishment’. This theory provides predictions about the effects of law enforcement activity on criminals’ actions but can it provide investigative advice? This paper extends the theoretical framework by identifying the possibility of ‘economic profiling’ of criminals and terrorists. Investigative psychologists attempt to derive the characteristics of offenders from the characteristics of the crime to develop an offender profile. The assignment of individuals to a ‘class’ involves the application of a classification scheme or typology. If the characteristics of a crime can be assigned to a particular type, the offender will have certain characteristics. This may assist law enforcement in identifying and finding the offender. A logical extension of the expected utility analysis of crime and terrorist behaviour is the development of a methodology of economic profiling based upon an economic-behavioural typology of criminal and terrorist behaviour. It is the purpose of this paper to provide some first steps in the development of such a framework. These first steps are cast in the context of an investigative economist seeking to develop an economic profile of a lone wolf terrorist.