Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Markets: A Multifractal Cross-Correlations Analysis

Abstract

We utilize the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to investigate the cross-correlations between the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and US stock markets in the framework of Fractal Market Hypothesis (FMH). The data contain daily closing values of EPU, and the returns of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI), S&P 500 index (GSPC) and NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC). Our empirical results show that changes in EPU and fluctuations in the US stock markets interact in a nonlinear way. Furthermore, there exists significant multifractality in the cross-correlations between EPU and stock markets. The cross-correlations exhibit dynamics and are affected by major international events. We capture the underlying mechanisms such as multifractality and nonlinear relation that dominate EPU-US stock markets nexus by means of FMH. The findings add a new dimension to the existing literature, and are important for market participants to adjust investment decisions.