Economic policy uncertainty and natural resources commodity prices: A comparative analysis of pre- and post-pandemic quantile trends in China

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between natural resource commodity prices and economic policy uncertainty in China, both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study uses an innovative Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to uncover both short- and long-term linkages among variables of interest. This study finds that there is a quantile relationship between these variables, with economic policy uncertainty having a negative impact on gold and natural gas prices during and after the pandemic. In contrast, during the pre-pandemic era, economic policy uncertainty had a negative impact on gold and natural gas prices but not on oil prices. These findings have significant policy implications, particularly in the context of the pandemic and its effects on the global economy.