Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment decisions: Dilemma or opportunity?

Abstract

In an environment of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), how to improve efficiency and optimize the scale of firm investment is an important topic worthy of attention. This paper examines the impact of EPU on firms' investment decisions, using Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2019 as a research sample. The study finds that macro EPU inhibits the increase of firms' investment scale and efficiency while exacerbating the risk of overinvestment or underinvestment. Local EPU enhances a firm's investment scale but simultaneously exacerbates the risk of over- or underinvestment, which in turn inhibits investment efficiency. The mechanism test shows that, first, macro EPU promotes firms' R&D investment but inhibits their green investment. In contrast, local EPU inhibits R&D investment and promotes green investment. Second, macro EPU has a significant negative effect on firms' business performance, while local EPU has a smaller effect. Therefore, in an uncertain environment, the government should actively stabilize the macroeconomic environment, and firms should actively optimize investment structures and improve their risk prevention mechanisms.