Economic Policy and Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary, 2010-2015

Abstract

Following a prolonged period of economic decline and stagnation, Hungary’s GDP growth accelerated to 3.7% in 2014 and was close to 3% in 2015. The reasons for the country’s economic performance over the last six years are only partly related to the economic policies pursued since 2010. Deleveraging (the decrease in excessive debt, both at the macroeconomic and the microeconomic level) had a negative impact on Hungary’s growth performance between 2010 and 2013. However, the acceleration of growth observed in 2014 is also mainly due to “exogenous” factors, in particular exceptionally large transfers from EU funds, which have nothing to do with the government’s so-called “unorthodox” economic policy. The deteriorating institutional environment of the economy, in turn, is a direct consequence of this policy. Without fundamental improvements in the institutional environment and stability/predictability of economic policy, the country’s potential growth is expected to be rather low, implying a very slow convergence with the more affluent nations of the European Union and a divergence relative to the other central and eastern European member states of the EU.