Economic performance and incumbents' support in Latin America

Abstract

We analyze the impact of economic conditions and income shocks on the stability of incumbents' support in Latin America. A reduction in the incumbent's vote share from one election to another is a behavioral indicator of voter discontent with her performance, a crucial element of democratic accountability. In explaining the percentage change in incumbent vote, we emphasize the importance of income effects. In particular, we argue that negative economic conditions have deleterious consequences on the capacity of incumbents to sustain their electoral support. We test this hypothesis both at the aggregate and individual level using electoral and survey data. We find evidence that negative economic shocks erode support for incumbents at both levels of analysis, thus increasing our confidence on results showing the impact of pocketbook economic vote in the region.