Economic Modeling of Oral Rabies Vaccination: Issues and Concepts

Abstract

Author(s): Sterner, Ray T. | Abstract: This paper describes issues and concepts relevant to economic modeling of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns for managing wildlife rabies. Economic models of ORV are mathematical expressions used to predict and draw inferences about the costs and savings likely to be recouped by these rabies management efforts. Costs that are prevented due to ORV campaigns convert to savings. Comparison of campaign duration, bait cost, bait density, and bait distribution data for North American ORV campaigns showed that: 1) campaigns are lengthy, 2) those involving raccoons entail greater bait densities (i.e., related bait costs) and per unit area bait-distribution costs than those involving foxes and coyotes, and 3) all entail “enhanced” surveillance and establishment of maintenance barriers (i.e., deter translocation or reintroduction of new cases) upon completion. Key modeling issues were: model parameterization, ORV cost variables (i.e., bait costs, bait densities, and unit area distribution costs), time horizon, contingency costs, and ORV host specificity.