Abstract
Today, distributed energy production is a key activity supporting energy systems in many countries around the world. Applicable regulations, fees and subsidies encourage entrepreneurs to look for solutions that will reduce operating costs and limit their negative impact on the natural environment. In the article, it was decided to carry out a technical and economic analysis and investment risk analysis for the distributed production of electricity and heat based on natural gas. Six scenarios were taken into account, depending on the number of gas engines, the use of the photovoltaic installation and the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) system. It has been shown that the most advantageous of the presented solution is the use of a system adjusted to the power of an industrial plant (return on investment in 4th year). The least beneficial for the investor are solutions aimed at the use and resale of energy supplemented with photovoltaic panels and an ORC system. An investment risk analysis and a sensitivity analysis were also performed. It shows how changes in electricity and gas prices and the environmental fee affect the profitability of investments. It has been shown that solutions with variable power are characterised by the lowest investment risk. The summary indicates the possible activities leading to greater economic efficiency. Such actions will be forced in the future by the market, political and environmental situation. Analyses such as these will allow entrepreneurs to thoroughly prepare for the European Union energy modernization process.
Highlights
In business, one of the major parameters influencing profitability is the price of energy.It depends on many variables such as fuel prices, environmental fees and exchange rates.Many of them can change with geopolitical conditions, which may gave a significant impact on the price of the final product and its competitiveness on market
Based on data from the Energy Regulatory Office, the electricity market is geographically divided, and the market has five large distribution network operators whose networks are directly connected to the transmission network [24]
The cost of consumed electricity was calculated according to the Formula (4) adopted from the supplier in Poland: Ce = Ne ·ceN + Ee ·(ceE + ceOZE + ceK ) + c ae where Ne is the power of power grid connection; ceN is the price of power; Ee is the amount of consumed electricity; ceE is the price of electricity; ceOZE is renewable energy costs; ceK is cogeneration costs and c ae is the fee
Summary
One of the major parameters influencing profitability is the price of energy. The CO2 emis of 14 sion factor for methane is 55.8 tCO2/TJ [1] and is almost half for hard coal Another method of reducing CO2 emissions can be the use of alternative fuels such as ammonia, which can be produced using renewable energy sources [4]. Simulations of four-hour power outages in Austria show a loss of 287 mln € [15] This argument justified using the energy microgrid based at local power generator for example CHP units. The part of the article presents a technical, economic and investment risk analysis for distributed production of electricity and heat based on natural gas It was made for a model building located in the west-central part of Poland. Additional photovoltaic systems (PV) and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) were used
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