Economic Limit Estimation and Production Forecasting in a Field by Using Decline Curve Analysis Method

Abstract

In this paper, the decline curve analysis method is performed according to a new economic limit in a field named X (for confidential reasons). The production data are processed in EXCEL software and the forecasting is made in MBAL software by respecting the following steps: Firstly, identify the decline zone and determine the decline model on the production history, secondly estimate a new economic limit by using the actual oil price, thirdly, forecast the production and determine the reserves still recoverable and fourthly, make an economic evaluation. The interpretation of the result show that the decline zone is extended on 540 days and the decline curve showed an exponential decline by the next, the new economic limit is estimated at 381.86 Sm3/Day which allow concluding that, the life of the field X is extended from 367 days with 253,935.46 Sm3 as the ultimate recoverable reserves. By the end, these reserves can generate 11,581,676 USD as net income. The above results make it possible to understand the influence of the economic limit and by ricochet the oil price on the lifetime of field X and on its recoverable reserves. Depending on the company, the makeable net income can be set as profitable or nonprofitable. In the positive case this could allow the reopening of the field X.