Economic Life Prediction of Transformer Based on Repairing Profit and Decommissioning Profit

Abstract

Transformer lifecycle management is an important research field that power grid enterprises pay great focus on. The economic life prediction of transformer can provide a basis for transformer equipment management and power grid planning, contribute to prolong the service time of transformer and improve the operation safety and economy of power grid. This paper proposes an economic life prediction model of transformer by analysing various economic factors of transformer and taking the maximum annual average net profit of transformer as the judging criterion, and achieves the economic life quantitative prediction of transformer by comparing the annual average net profit of repairing a transformer and the annual average net profit of decommissioning a transformer. Finally, a case study on the economic life prediction of transformer by selecting an 110kV transformer in service as an example is carried out according to the proposed model, and the results show that the proposed model can not only effectively analyse the economic factors of the transformer, but also reasonably predict the economic life of the transformer, which has a guiding significance for the decision-making of transformer management and the future planning of substation.