Economic insecurity, nativism, and the erosion of institutional trust

Abstract

We study markers of economic insecurity and nativism as factors explaining recent declines in institutional confidence. Taking microdata from 59 middle and upper-income nations, we show that hostility towards immigrants/immigration and a synthetic measure of economic insecurity are both significant predictors of individual-level institutional mistrust. Our parameter estimates are slightly larger and more robust for economic insecurity, and the results are stronger for developed, western countries (UK, USA, Australia, Canada) than in Asia or South America. The correlations appear for a wide variety of trust metrics and do not differ meaningfully between profit-driven and non-profit making institutions. In line with the concept of economic nationalism, we also find evidence of an ‘amplification’ effect, where individuals exposed to higher levels of economic insecurity are more responsive to nativist beliefs. The results have implications for policymakers looking to promote institutional confidence and social cohesion.