Abstract
AbstractAnimal disease outbreaks can cause disruptions in domestic and international markets. Business continuity aims to provide a proactive approach to alleviate some of these negative effects on consumers, producers, and agribusinesses. Using a partial equilibrium model of the U.S. egg industry, the economic impacts of business continuity during an epidemiological simulated disease event are modeled. Results show total welfare losses can be reduced by allowing permitted movement during an outbreak given a specified level of biosecurity. Understanding the potential market responses business continuity can have on the market may lead to reductions in the negative implications of a disease event.
Highlights
Pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an extremely contagious viral disease of poultry notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) (OIE, 2016a)
The objective of this study is to evaluate the economic consequences of either permitting or prohibiting the movements of shell eggs, which have been implicated in indirect Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus transmission in previous outbreaks (Thomas et al, 2005), from commercial egg layer facilities located within an HPAI Control Area (e.g., Minnesota) into areas shown to be free from disease
Shell eggs produced on Monitored Premises located within Control Areas are permitted to move, mitigating the losses associated with disease management
Summary
Pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an extremely contagious viral disease of poultry notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) (OIE, 2016a). Movement restrictions may be broadly applied within the HPAI Control Area because of the uncertainty of the true disease status of poultry on operations that appear to be clinically normal. There are no reported numbers of these producers because of privacy in reporting, but they represent a smaller subset of the 6.2% of layer producers with more than 200,000 birds that would be large enough to justify on-site processing creating a separate supply chain (USDAAPHIS, 2014) As such, these firms are excluded from this analysis of shell eggs because of separability of these products along the supply chain, different production structures, lack of data, and differing risks associated with product movement
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