Economic impacts of ageing: an inter‐industry approach

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing on the relative importance of industries in Portugal, quantifying the changes in production, value added, imported intermediate inputs and employment.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses data from the Family Spending Survey to disaggregate the household column of the Portuguese input‐output table in different age groups, projecting their consumption, using the latest demographic projections made by Statistics Portugal (INE).FindingsThe study identifies the industries that are likely to be stimulated by the ageing of the Portuguese populations, as well as the industries that will most likely become disadvantaged by the process.Social implicationsThe task of identification of growing and declining industries due to ageing is important to help the design of employment, environmental and social policies.Originality/valueThe contemporary demographic trends in Western societies have added to the importance of studying the economic and social consequences of ageing. The main issues have been the labour market effects, the sustainability of social security systems and long‐term care. In this paper, we address a different research topic, quantifying the sectoral impact of the evolution of consumption patterns associated with ageing. This can be useful in addressing the structural challenges of the rapid ageing of the population, common to most of the developed economies.