Abstract
In March of 2017, two outbreaks of avian influenza, one highly- and one low-pathogenic, were reported in Tennessee poultry breeding flocks. This study estimates the potential economic impacts of a larger hypothetical event, in particular, indicating the magnitude of effects for poultry producers, industry organizations, policymakers, and other industry stakeholders. The economic impacts are estimated both with and without reductions in forward-linked processing of broiler breeders and broiler operations with depopulation rates of 10 to 25 percent in a nine-county area in the south-central part of Tennessee. Estimated reductions in gross regional product ranged from $6.7 million to $16.8 million.
Highlights
In March 2017, avian influenza was detected in two breeder flocks in Tennessee, in Lincoln and Giles counties (Figure 1)
Diao et al (2009) used a dynamic Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model and a social accounting matrix (SAM) to investigate the economy-wide impact of Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in Nigeria
As a result of an HPAI event, both broiler breeder and broiler operations would have a negative impact on the multi-county region from inputs not purchased for production and loss of producer’s income
Summary
In March 2017, avian influenza was detected in two breeder flocks in Tennessee, in Lincoln and Giles counties (Figure 1). They assembled West African spatially explicit datasets including the distribution of poultry and humans, the location of the outbreaks, and the migratory path of birds in the region From the simulation, they found that the extent of economic loss depends on the size of the affected areas and on the mechanics of AI outbreak transmission, which occurs through either local transmission or through birds’ migratory patterns. Diao et al (2009) used a dynamic Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) model and a social accounting matrix (SAM) to investigate the economy-wide impact of HPAI outbreak in Nigeria They found that the indirect cost of the outbreak to gross domestic product (GDP) is larger than the direct value-added loss from the outbreak. They found that the outbreak does not have significant impact on the poverty rate
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