Economic Impact of Fluopyram-Amended Seed Treatments to Reduce Soybean Yield Loss Associated with Sudden Death Syndrome.

Abstract

Soybean (Glycine max) sudden death syndrome (SDS), caused by Fusarium virguliforme, is a key limitation in reaching soybean yield potential, stemming from incomplete disease management through cultural practices and partial host resistance. A fungicidal seed treatment was released in 2014 with the active ingredient fluopyram and was the first chemical management strategy to reduce soybean yield loss stemming from SDS. Although farm level studies have found fluopyram profitable, we were curious to discover whether fluopyram would be beneficial nationally if targeted to soybean fields at risk for SDS yield loss. To estimate economic benefits of fluopyram adoption in SDS at-risk acres, in the light of U.S. public research and outreach from a privately developed product, we applied an economic surplus approach, calculating ex ante net benefits from 2018 to 2032. Through this framework of logistic adoption of fluopyram for alleviation of SDS-associated yield losses, we projected a net benefit of $5.8 billion over 15 years, considering the costs of public seed treatment research and future extension communication. Although the sensitivity analysis indicates that overall net benefits from fluopyram adoption on SDS at-risk acres are highly dependent upon the market price of soybean, the incidence of SDS, the adoption path, and ceiling of this seed treatment, the net benefits still exceeded $407 million in the worst-case scenario.