Abstract
From the mid-twentieth century, the share of service sector increased from 60% to 80% and amongst service, tourism is fast-growing industry. Globally, tourism is an important component of the service economy, representing one-third of international trade in services. This sector is the import engine of economic growth in many charts as globally, and it is a very dynamic and growing sector in the last decades. Europe is the world’s most visited destination with more than 700 million arrivals, representing 51% of the all arrivals. Amongst EU Members, the most attractive destinations are France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Greece; but nevertheless, Croatia recorded a remarkable increase in tourist arrivals. Tourism sector has experienced a major growth in recent years. However, this sector is very vulnerable because tourist products represent luxury goods depending on many economic and social factors. Besides the fact mentioned above, the latest trends about coronavirus will set out many tourism companies in an unenviable situation, dropping revenues among the lowest level in history. In this paper, author estimate potential losses in European tourism sector under circumstances of closed borders. In addition, less pessimistic scenario has been forecasted, achieving the level of 30% of the previous year.
Highlights
The direct contribution of the travel and tourism industry accounted for 3.3 percent of the total global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 (Ilo.org, 2011)
In 2019, all destinations worldwide registered around 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals and from that number, 50.8% arrivals were reported in Europe, 25% in Asia and Pacific, 15% in America and 5% in Africa
The direct contribution of the travelling and tourism industry accounted for 3.3 percent of the total global GDP in 2019
Summary
From the mid-twentieth century, the share of service sector of GDP has been expanded and by emphasizing the importance of services and among them, tour-. The direct contribution of the travel and tourism industry accounted for 3.3 percent of the total global GDP in 2019 (Ilo.org, 2011). Tourism is a very significant sector of some national economy, with its share in the GDP ranging from 5% to over 20%. It is a sector with rising economic impact on the global economy with 330 million people employed in tourism presently while ten years ago it was only 235 million jobs. According to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (WTO), globally, the arrival of international tourists has increased from 527 million in 1995, to 1.5 billion in 2019. All regions registered the increasing number of tourists whereas Middle East, Asia and Pacific enjoyed an above average growth. During the above-mentioned period, some countries have shown a rapid growth of more than 10% like Iceland (23.8%) or Japan (23.5%) and around 10 percent, like Portugal (11.9%), Slovakia (11.2), Chile (10.7%) and Hungary (10.1%). (OECD, 2020) in spite of this double digit growth rates, five destinations were receiving one third of all inbound arrivals and these are France, Spain, Chine, the United States and Italy
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