Abstract
Objectives: To measure the impacts of climate change sensitivity and how it is affecting economic conditions of farmers in current rice wheat cropping system. Methods/Statistical analysis: Cross-sectional data of 210 farmers from the seven different strata were collected from Punjab, Pakistan. Climate data of baseline (1980-2010) and future (2039-2040) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for five global circulation models were collected from secondary sources. The climate scenarios were used in two crop simulation models, i.e., DSSAT and APSIM. Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multidimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) was used for the economic analysis. Findings: The crop modeling results of the study using different GCMs and RCPs show that there was negative impact of climate change on the yields of both major crops i.e., rice and wheat. The comparison of both CSMs given the insight that the percent losses were higher in APSIM as compared to DSSAT. The economic analysis endorsed the negative impacts of climate change on farming community. The major economic indicators (net returns, per capita income and poverty) of the study area expressed the declining trend in both RCPs (4.5 and 8.5) and all five GSMs. The observed household vulnerability to climate change percentage was more intense in RCP 8.5 as compared to RCP 4.5, however, among GCMs the figures shown higher vulnerability in hot dry climate conditions and lower in cool wet. The poverty of the study area increased with climate change and it was more prominent while using RCP 8.5 as compared with RCP 4.5.The highest increase in poverty was observed using APSIM crop model for hot-dry conditions. Application/Improvements: The study concluded that to ensure food security, poverty alleviation and to minimize climatic risks there is the need to update agronomic practices and develop adaptation strategies. Keywords: Climatic Change Sensitivity, Economic Assessment of Climate Change, Pakistan, TOA-MD, Rice Wheat Cropping System
Highlights
The most threatening concern of this century for the coming generations is climate change (CC), and the expected consequences of it would be considerable[1,2,3].The climate variability and change have substantial impacts on all biological and human systems[4]
The NR and PCI with CC for RCP 8.5 ranged from PKR 517,434 to PKR 560,861 per farm and PKR 99,750 to PKR 107,159for Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)
The NR and PCI with CC for RCP 8.5 ranged from PKR 612,762 to PKR 652,806 per farm and PKR 80.757 to PKR 85,940for APSIM
Summary
The most threatening concern of this century for the coming generations is climate change (CC), and the expected consequences of it would be considerable[1,2,3].The climate variability and change have substantial impacts on all biological and human systems[4]. The problem of climate change gets worse because its impacts could be felt at the places far beyond its origin[5]. Climate change intensity and effects vary in different regions, countries, sectors and communities according to the prevailing environmental conditions[7]. Cool temperate regions will observe the positive impacts on climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation while the tropical regions with already hot climatic conditions will face further rise in average temperature due to CC over the period of time[5,6,7]. The potential climate change risks disturb the whole economic system. Among all major sectors of an economy agriculture is more prone and susceptible to climatic changes. The developing countries get worse off due to climate change because of the high dependence of their economies on agriculture sector[8,9]
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