Abstract

The technology decomposition theory is proposed for technologies that exhibit rapid technical change. This theory is intended to support technology forecasting by means of definition of the technical change in technology constituents. Technology decomposition shows that rapid technical change is mainly accomplished by improvements in the manufacturing process. The improvements are the result of the design of new production equipment. Measurements of technical change are used to derive a technology constituent value. It is proposed that the derived constituent value is the maximum achievable. This leads to implications for the management of technology in general and, specifically, for the management of product engineering, if the product depends on one or more rapidly changing technologies. >

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