Economic growth in Norte Santander, Colombia, and the effects of the armed conflict

Abstract

The objective of this work is to estimate the armed conflict effects on the economic growth of Norte de Santander from 1988 to 2012; starting with an economic characterization and some aspects of the armed conflict in the period 1988 - 2012, through an econometric model, according to Cobb-Duglas function from the Solow-Swan model. The Department has experienced volatile economic growth with weaknesses in its productive development, and that has been very important by the armed conflict leaving a humanitarian tragedy. The econometric results show that the appropriation of illegal income by armed groups outside of the law, and the guerrilla attacks on infrastructure have negative effects on economic growth, while public spending has a positive relationship with the growth, it is expected that this work will contribute to the debate for the post-conflict scenario, and that it will serve as input for the development of public policy in the department, and mostly the importance of peace for the economy.