Economic Growth in History: Survey and Analysis

Abstract

list of figures page xi list of tables xii preface xiii introduction xv 1 Growth and Development in History 1 Economic growth and economic development Growth and welfare - The measurement of economic growth - National income accounting: progress, promise, and pitfalls - The growth of income in modern times Economic growth before the mid-nineteenth century - The demographic factor and economic growth - Structural change in history - Structural change and sectoral productivity - The 'services' sector 2 Agriculture in Economic Growth 70 The role of agriculture - The contraction of the agricultural sector - Peasant artisans and peasant traders - Systems of land tenure and inheritance Agricultural productivity before the industrial age - Agricultural productivity in recent times - The sources of productivity improvement - Agricultural productivity and the growth of the economy 3 The Role of Capital 115 (a){emsp}investment and economic 115 growth The unimportance of capital? - Some conceptual and measurement problems - Capital/output ratios, cross-country and over time - Investment ratios in theory and history - Investment: the key to the 'industrial revolution'? - Savings and investment in pre-industrial societies (b){emsp}the sources of capital 157 'Direct' financing and intermediation in history - The financing of the 'industrial revolution' - Financial intermediation in the industrial era - The sources of savings - 'Involuntary' saving (c){emsp}the export of capital 178 The history of capital exports - Capital imports and growth - Capital exports and the lending country - The servicing of external debt - International capital movements and economic growth since 1945 4 Foreign Trade and Economic Growth 218 Trade, State and economy in early modern times - Do trade ratios decline? - Inter-country differences in trade ratios - 'Vertical' specialization before World War I - Trade as an 'engine of growth' - 'Enclave' economies - Trade in manufactures to 1913 - The 'engine of growth' reconsidered - Trade-constrained growth before 1913 The terms of trade of primary producers - New trends in twentieth-century trade Patterns of trade since World War II - Trade and growth: some concluding remarks 5 Technology and the 'Residual' 295 The 'residual' in economic growth - Allocation of resources - 'Human capital' and growth - Denison on the 'partitioning' of growth - The role of technological change - The evidence of patent statistics - The technological revolution? - The sources of invention Private and corporate invention - Invention, innovation and lags in technological advance - Inter-country 'lags' - Technical 'improvements' - Factor proportions and technical change 'Managerial' improvements and productivity - Pitfalls and possibilities in the historical analysis of productivity change 6 Some Theories of Growth and Development 378 Patterns and the unique event in history - Some limiting factors in historical generalization - Hollis B. Chenery's 'patterns of development' - Legal and institutional change in economic development - Market imperfections and national economic integration - The trend of income distribution - 'Labour surplus' models - Patterns of industrial growth: Chenery and Hoffmann - 'Stage' i - 'Take-off' - Uniformity and diversity again - The limitations of economic analysis KEY TO REFERENCES 447 INDEXES 452