Abstract
In this paper, provincial panel data for China during 1995–2015 and the time substitution data envelopment analysis (DEA) model were used to measure the influences of China’s carbon emissions reduction policy on economic growth under various reduction targets and to determine optimal economic growth and optimal carbon emissions of each province. In addition, this paper empirically examines the factors that influence the optimal economic growth and carbon emissions. The results indicate that not all provinces will suffer from a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) when confronted by the constraints of carbon emissions reductions. Certain provinces can achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and carbon emissions reductions if they are allowed to reallocate production decisions over time. Provinces with higher environmental efficiency, higher per capita GDP, smaller populations, and lower energy intensity might suffer from a larger loss in GDP. Therefore, they should set lower carbon emissions reduction targets.
Highlights
China’s economic transition has suffered from constraints generated by both resources and the environment
The development planning of the “National 11th Five-Year Plan” noted that the energy consumption of per unit gross domestic product (GDP) would be reduced by 20% and the discharge of major pollutants would be reduced by 10% compared with 2005 levels by 2010
Pursuant to the commitment made by China at the Copenhagen Climate Summit, China will reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40–45% compared with that of 2005
Summary
China’s economic transition has suffered from constraints generated by both resources and the environment. The limitation of China’s domestic resource capacity has led to an increasing number of energy and environmental problems on China’s economic growth. In pursuit of sustainable development, the promotion of energy conservation and emissions reductions is a long-term, arduous task for China’s national development strategy. At the Copenhagen Climate Summit, China and other contracting parties reached a binding agreement on greenhouse gas reductions in the post-Kyoto era to reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 by 40–45% compared with that in 2005. The State Council’s “12th Five-Year Plan” and “13th Five-Year Plan” for energy conservation and emissions reductions clearly outlined specific objectives and tasks related to conserving energy and reducing emissions. Considering that energy conservation and emissions reduction may slow economic growth, certain policymakers show a lack of motivating power in energy conservation and emissions reductions
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