Economic Forecast of Further Development for Oil Suppliers to World Markets Against the Background of the Development of Renewable Energy Sources

Abstract

The energy problem in the conditions of modern economic development has acquired a particularly large scale: this is due to the elevated level of environmental pollution from conventional energy sources and their limited amount in the Earth’s interior. This has forced countries to develop new, renewable energy sources. However, it is relevant to consider the prospects for the development of energy exporting countries, namely oil supplier states. Thus, the purpose of this study is to forecast the development trends of these countries, considering the current pace of introduction of renewable energy sources in the world. Main methods for authoring the paper were modelling and forecasting, considering the model of the future development of the oil market designed in this paper. The authors conclude that the demand for oil, at least in the short and medium term, will increase. This is due to a considerable projected increase in global energy demand, which cannot be met only through the development of renewable energy sources. In this case, most oil-exporting countries may experience an increase in cash receipts over the future. However, authors believes that it is better for these countries, especially the OPEC member states and Azerbaijan, to start pursuing a policy of export diversification to become less dependent in their economic well-being on trends in the energy market and have more sources of income in case of problems in this market. The paper allows taking a fresh look at current changes in the oil market and the role of renewable energy sources in its development