Abstract
Previous studies have explored the longitudinal effect of changes in national income, inflation, and employment on the national congressional vote. While findings vary, on the whole the evidence appears to support the proposition that voters withhold support from congressional candidates of the presidential party during periods of economic decline and reward them with votes in good times. Here the problem is approached from a different perspective. Disaggregated data are used to build models that permit a reasonably straightforward test of the effect of local economic variation on the congressional district vote. Contrary to prevailing observations, our findings show no linear relationship between changes in the vote for individual congressional candidates and changes in real income and inflation in the 1972, 1974, and 1976 congressional elections.
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