Economic evaluations and political support: Repeated micro-analyses in the Netherlands, 2008-2020

Abstract

How important is the evaluation of peopleʼs personal economic situation and the economic situation of the country in which they live in explaining differences in political support? And how stable are the effects over time and between different groups? This chapter addresses these questions using analyses of data drawn from fifty surveys carried out for the Dutch ‘Citizensʼ Outlooks Barometerʼ (COB) over the period 2008-2020, from before the financial crisis until the start of de coronavirus crisis. It transpires that (macroeconomic) ‘sociotropicʼ considerations are more important than (personal financial) ‘egotropicʼ aspects over the entire period and for both higher and lower-educated segments of the population. Evaluations of the present situation appear to be more important than expectations. Some evidence is found that negative evaluations have a bigger impact than positive evaluations. Suggestions are put forward for further research to explain fluctuations in the importance of financial and economic evaluations in explaining differences in political support.