Economic evaluation of the solar carbothermic reduction of ZnO by using a single sensitivity analysis and a Monte-Carlo risk analysis

Abstract

Abstract The technical feasibility of the solar carbothermal reduction of ZnO has been successfully demonstrated in a pilot plant. The economics of this process is addressed by means of a single sensitivity analysis and a Monte-Carlo risk analysis. A medium-term and a long-term scenario have been investigated, each for a 5 and a 30 MWth plant. For a discount rate of 15% the zinc production costs vary between 482 and 245 $/t for the medium-term scenario and between 312 and 146 $/t for the long-term scenario, respectively. These costs do not account for the zinc oxide input material. In addition, a risk analysis was conducted for the 30 MWth long-term scenario. For each input parameter, a probability distribution was estimated and the probability distribution of the zinc production cost was calculated by means of a Monte-Carlo method. The expected mean zinc production costs vary from 95 $/t for a discount rate of 0%–286 $/t for a discount rate of 40%.