Economic Effects of Pension Reform based on Consumption Tax

Abstract

This paper analyzes the micro and macroeconomic effects of pension reform by a consumption tax hike by using an overlapping-generations model that is primarily based on Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003). Although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider pay-as-you-go pension in a model of a small open economy, they do not analyze physical capital accumulation, assume that public pension is financed only by the intergenerational transfer of national pension premiums, and ignore consumption tax as a public pension resource. This study considers pay-as-you-go pension in a closed economy model and assumes that public pensions are financed by both consumption taxes and national pension premiums. In addition, although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider a model with endogenous fertility, this analysis uses a model with exogenous fertility based on Verbon (1988) and Breyer (1989). Subsequently, we consider the micro and macroeconomic effects of the policy that increases the consumption tax rate compared to the effects of increases under a national pension system. We find that even if the population growth rate is negative, both a consumption tax hike and increases in people’s national pension premiums surprisingly promote physical capital accumulation, and if promoting physical capital is enough, such policies enhance economic growth remarkably. Furthermore, we show that a consumption tax hike may promote physical capital accumulation compared to an increase in national pension premiums if the consumption tax rate is not too high.