Abstract
The micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMDG) has significantly increased after the normative resolution No. 482/2012 in Brazil; the installed capacity surpassed 7 GW in 2021. In the international context, a similar event was observed, whose process generated a cross-subsidy for other consumers, in addition to other problems that affect the economic balance of concessionaires. To mitigate this issue, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) is in the process of revising current rules. Thus, this study estimates the weight of this decision, through a methodology adapted from international assessment models, based on information from the Brazilian regulatory system. In order to achieve it, this paper presents metrics to define the potential market MMDG, based on the consumption patterns of consumers. Then, through time series analysis, the MMDG demand curve is estimated under two scenarios up to 2030. Finally, the economic impact on tariff adjustments and revisions, and their effect on the electric power concessionaires are evaluated. In the distribution companies of the Enel Group alone, economic losses are estimated at USD 1.2 billion by 2030; 53% of this will be passed on to consumers’ tariffs. Thus, based on international experiences, it can be concluded that the best model is the adequate grid remuneration.
Highlights
Academic Editor: Alberto-JesusDistributed Generation (DG) refers to electricity production carried out near or close to consumers, regardless of power, technology, and energy source
Micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMDG) is currently considered to be a technological innovation in electricity markets, but it is a known concept that has already been devalued with the increasing competitiveness in centralized power generation
The exercise carried out consists of applying theoretical knowledge of Brazilian economic regulation, associated with the behavior of the demand curve for MMDG
Summary
Academic Editor: Alberto-JesusDistributed Generation (DG) refers to electricity production carried out near or close to consumers, regardless of power, technology, and energy source. Council on Large Electric Systems [1] defines DG as any local generator connected to the distributor with a capacity of up to 50 MW. Engineers [2] defines DG as power generation with reduced capacity compared to centralized ones that can be installed anywhere in the distribution system. Energy Agency [3] characterizes DG as generating units on the demand side, connected to the local distribution network. Despite the different definitions for the concept of DG, there are common points in the literature that are subject to the classification by local regulation, such as the scale of the installed power source and the energy vector of the supply source.
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